Farm incomes set to rise over next decade – but volatility puts gains at risk.
Global average gross agricultural income per worker is projected to increase by 9 percent by 2035, driven by productivity gains and broadly stable agricultural prices, according to a new report released today by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
However, this outlook remains vulnerable to market volatility caused by crises and conflicts. The report estimates that if the frequency of shocks observed in recent years continues, there is a 25 percent probability that agricultural incomes in 2035 will be lower than current levels. Short term risks are also significant, as recent energy price hikes and resulting reductions in fertiliser use are likely to affect agricultural production in 2027. While high-income countries can more easily absorb these shocks, low-income countries face deteriorating food security.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035 provides a global baseline reference for medium-term prospects for agricultural and fisheries markets at national, regional and global levels. Under stable conditions, global agricultural and fisheries production is projected to expand by 13 percent over the next ten years, driven mainly by productivity improvements and production intensification, with growth concentrated in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
However, the Outlook also highlights the potential negative impacts of adverse shocks, even if they are temporary. If the 33 percent average surge in energy prices observed in the first half of 2026 were to continue in the second half of the year, global grain production would decline by 0.9 percent in 2027 and more sharply, by 1.7 percent, in low-income countries. Associated income losses and higher food prices would also force households in lower-income countries to reduce food consumption and shift towards cheaper food.
Read more on the website of the OECD
