Global economic outlook shifts as trade policy uncertainty weakens growth
Global economic prospects are weakening, with substantial barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, diminishing confidence and heightened policy uncertainty projected to have adverse impacts on growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
The Outlook projects global growth slowing from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026. The slowdown is expected to be most concentrated in the United States, Canada, Mexico and China, with smaller downward adjustments in other economies.
GDP growth in the United States is projected to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. In the euro area, growth is projected to strengthen modestly from 0.8% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026. China’s growth is projected to moderate from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026.
Inflationary pressures have resurfaced in some economies. Higher trade costs in countries raising tariffs are expected to push inflation up further, although the impact will be partially offset by weaker commodity prices. Annual headline inflation in the G20 economies is collectively expected to moderate from 6.2% to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
Read more on the website of the OECD
